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AI and nuclear war threaten human extinction by 2100, report warns
The commission says nuclear conflict and malicious AI are the only threats with extinction-level risk, while 17 threats could cost billions of healthy life-years.
A Lancet commission of 35 leaders identified 17 interconnected catastrophic threats to global health, warning these dangers could collectively account for tens of billions of years of lost health through the 21st century.
Nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence pose extinction-level risks, the commission found. AI impact estimates remain theoretical because "no malicious AI event of a truly global magnitude" has occurred, though industry experts warned such technology could kill humanity.
Malicious AI could cause about 10.4 billion healthy years of life lost globally by 2100, while nuclear conflict could wipe out 9.35 billion DALYs. Income inequality could impose a burden equivalent to 25 COVID-19 pandemics, researchers fear.
Global threats risk amplifying existing inequalities, with the greatest burden falling on vulnerable communities, Commission Co-Chair Dr. Natalia Kanem said. She noted that recent global shocks show how quickly stability can give way to crisis.
Humanity still has the agency to act, said Dr. Christopher Murray, co-chair of the new commission. Murray warned that delaying action will only serve to shift and increase costs into the future, urging immediate world leader intervention.
Experts have identified the greatest risks to humanity by the end of the century. They chose the lost years as the basis of their calculations. Two of the scenarios are apocalyptic.
It is a red alert launched by the very serious magazine The Lancet. From nuclear war to the explosion of obesity, to the drifts of artificial intelligence, 17 threats weigh today